Iran does not want a world war, but Europe will feel it hard, says Filip Turek

The conflict in the Middle East between Iran, the USA and Israel is still ongoing and there is no sign of a quick end. From the beginning, there have been concerns that it will escalate into a regional war, and the offensive power of Iranian missiles will also reach Europe. According to the MP and government representative for climate policy and the Green Deal Filip Turk (Motoriste), Europe is safe for now. "Iranian missiles potentially threaten southeastern Europe, but Iran is currently avoiding a wider escalation in order to prevent a global conflict. The EU remains an observer, but will feel the consequences economically and in terms of migration," says Turek in an interview for Deník.cz .

The war in the Middle East is in its third week. Was the US and Israeli intervention against Iran unexpected for you?

It was not entirely unexpected for me, yet it surprised me in its speed, scope, and timing in the midst of ongoing negotiations. Estimates of civilian casualties exceeded 1,300 dead in the first few days, the cost of the operation reached over ten billion dollars in ten days, with daily expenditures around one billion. It is well known that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been pushing for conflict with Iran for decades, while previous American presidents have avoided it because of the potential enormous economic costs and risks.

You, as well as the chairman of the Motorists party, Petr Macinek , are known to maintain contacts with American Republicans. What is the mood in the party, does President Trump have broad party support in this conflict?

President Trump has broad support within the Republican Party for action against Iran, but it is causing divisions that could directly affect the November 2026 election. Trump has support among the MAGA wing, where his support ranges between 77 and 90 percent. About 13 to 36 percent of Republicans express opposition or uncertainty.

Do they mind the war itself or the progress made so far?

For example, Senator Rand Paul and Representative Thomas Massie criticize the escalation without congressional approval. Many prominent MAGA supporters sharply criticize the attacks as a betrayal of the “No more foreign wars” and “America First” campaigns and call it a betrayal of the voter base. Trump promised no new wars during the campaign, but instead has become involved in several conflicts. The cost of operations and civilian casualties only increase concerns. As many as 52 percent of Republicans oppose sending ground troops and 42 percent are less willing to support in the event of American losses.

The year 2026 is crucial for American politics. In July, the US will celebrate 250 years since the declaration of independence. In November, congressional elections will be held. Trump needs to convince America and the world that he is a strong leader... That is why there is talk that the war in Iran should end quickly, at least pro forma, so that voters focused on the domestic agenda can calm down. But the conflict has certainly damaged Trump. For comparison , the post-9/11 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan cost the US over eight trillion dollars. Iran's mountainous terrain with the Zagros and Alborz mountains significantly complicates ground operations and increases the risk of long-term guerrilla warfare, unlike flat Iraq, where American involvement nevertheless lasted over eight years. Some statements by politicians close to President Trump, such as Senator Lindsey Graham - "when this regime falls, we will have a new Middle East and make a ton of money", suggest economic motives, and repeated attacks in the middle of negotiations unfortunately weaken the credibility of diplomatic processes.

When you were an MEP, you met with Iranian delegations. In your opinion, did Iran pose an immediate threat to global security?

Iran, in my opinion, did not pose an immediate threat to the US or the European Union . During my time on the European Parliament delegation to Iran – which is de facto frozen and has only held one meeting – MEPs agreed that it was an autocratic regime. I have been following the tensions surrounding its nuclear programme. Iran has in the past cooperated with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has reported uranium enrichment levels of up to sixty percent, but no evidence of active nuclear weapons development or an immediate threat to Western countries.

Yet President Donald Trump said the attack was necessary because Iran was just a stone's throw away from producing...

The Iranian nuclear threat has been debated for almost forty years, with repeated predictions that Iran could acquire a nuclear weapon within weeks or months, but these predictions have yet to be confirmed. In the summer of 2025, during the ongoing negotiations, there were Israeli-American attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, after which President Trump declared that key capabilities had been completely destroyed and the program significantly weakened. In this context, it is therefore surprising that Iran would pose an immediate risk to the US or Europe shortly thereafter.

What is Iran's relationship with the EU?

Significantly tense, marked by long-term sanctions, mutual distrust and limited contact. Rather than partnership. The EU imposed sanctions in response to human rights abuses and Iran's support for Russia in the conflict in Ukraine - in January 2026, it added another fifteen individuals and six entities for serious human rights violations, bringing the total number of people and entities sanctioned under this regime to 24 individuals and 26 entities. Additional sanctions also apply to components for drones and missiles.

Has any business been done yet?

EU-Iran trade remains at a very low level. In 2024, the total volume reached around €4.6 billion - with EU exports to Iran around €3.7 billion and imports of €850 million), and in the first 10 months of 2025 it was around €3.1 billion, reflecting the impact of sanctions on asset freezes, technology bans and financial restrictions . Iran describes the sanctions as hostile, while the EU stresses the need to respect international standards.

Did Iran have any goodwill to mend relations in the last months of your mandate?

Iran has not shown much goodwill in the negotiations, despite long-standing EU sanctions. In addition, Iran has resorted to domestic repression – more than six thousand people have died in the crackdown on protests since December 2025, according to human rights organizations – and has continued to support armed groups in the region. Trade has remained minimal, with no visible steps by Iran towards dialogue or change of behavior. Even in the context of the nuclear negotiations, Iran has not shown significant flexibility in limiting uranium enrichment or full cooperation with the IAEA in 2025-2026, although there has been some cooperation in the past. This led to the re-imposition of sanctions in September 2025.

Did you personally feel any hostility during the negotiations with Iran?

I have felt the effects of the EU's distrust of Iran on a personal level. After a single meeting at the Iranian embassy as part of my mandate in the European Parliament's friendly delegation to Iran, I was labeled an Iranian spy, a tragicomic label I still encounter from some less perceptive politicians.

It is already a known fact that Iranian missiles have a range as far as European territory. They have attacked US bases and places near them, including NATO member states . They are threatening others. Do you think it is likely that Iran would be willing to strike an EU country at some stage of the conflict?

The probability is low, although the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Iran is mainly focused on retaliation against the US and Israel, with attacks on their bases in the region, which killed eleven American soldiers. The EU remains more of an observer, with incidents at a British base in Cyprus and a French one in the United Arab Emirates, but without direct strikes on European territory. But Europe will feel the war.

Economically, certainly. The prices of oil, natural gas, and aviation fuel have risen sharply. Inflation is rising . What else does Europe need to prepare for?

There is a threat of a massive wave of migration. The conflict has caused the internal displacement of over a hundred thousand people in Iran and surrounding countries, with the risk that the destabilization will trigger an exodus of up to nine million refugees, which would overwhelm European asylum systems via Turkey and bring further security and social challenges. At the same time, the escalation in Lebanon adds another layer, where over 1.2 million people are displaced, hundreds of thousands of whom are heading towards the borders with Turkey and Syria, which increases the risk of a secondary wave of migration to Europe. It is precisely because of the knowledge of these serious consequences that I am a fundamental anti-interventionist and reject interventions in other states.

Source: Deník.cz